Experts suggest Greens to gain council seats from Labour and LibDems
8 February 2007
An election expert has forecast Green gains in May's city council elections because of disillusionment with Tony Blair's government, The Argus newspaper reported this week.
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Political forecaster David Boothroyd from London-based Indigo Public Affairs consultancy said the city's "cosmopolitan" population would tend to vote Green.
He said the city's Green Party was one of the strongest in the country putting considerable pressure on Labour and Liberal Democrat candidates.
“Brighton and Hove has a fairly young, cosmopolitan and bohemian population - people who would have happily voted Labour in the 90s but are now disillusioned - not just because of the war but all sorts of other things to do with civil liberties.
"The Green Party are consolidating a lot of this strength."
Mr Boothroyd said the prediction was “a mix of statistical analysis and intuition based on 17 years of experience”.
He said it was “an early version which would be revised nearer May and was the result of an examination of figures from previous elections, the weekly lists of by-elections and opinion polls”.
The Argus newspaper also reported last December that a poll monitoring organisation was predicting that Brighton Pavilion would become the first parliamentary constituency to elect a Green Party MP.
The seat is currently held by Labour MP David Lepper who is retiring at the next general election.
Forecast UK said: "It is increasingly likely the Green Party will take Brighton Pavilion at the next General Election. This prediction is based on national polls and local election results."
Cllr Keith Taylor (pictured left) the Green Party's candidate in the constituency in the 2005 general election said: "If you look at results, we do not need that many votes to make history in Brighton Pavilion.
At the last General Election, Keith won 9,530 votes (22% of the vote), only 867 behind the Conservatives and 6,000 behind Labour and well ahead of the LibDems.
Notes to editors:
For more information please contact Geoffrey Bowden Green Party Press Officer on 07958 682 683.[ENDS]
